US economy could get out of recession this year itself or early 2021, new survey says

Washington: The US economy will emerge from the recession in the second-half of this year or at some point in 2021, and a majority of economists said US Congress needs to extend supplemental aid, according to a National Association for Business Economics survey.

Two-thirds of panelists said the economy is still in the recession that started in February, while nearly 80 per cent indicated that there is at least a one-in-four chance of a double-dip recession. The NABE survey summarizes the responses of 235 members and was conducted between late July and early August.

A majority of panelists said they believe Congress should extend supplemental unemployment insurance and the Paycheck Protection Program for small businesses, with 22 per cent indicating that the next fiscal package should be $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion.

After Congress failed to agree on a new stimulus package, letting the extra $600 a week in unemployment assistance expire, President Donald Trump announced in early August that he would redirect disaster-relief funds to provide federal aid to the unemployed by executive action.

While 40 per cent of respondents rate the fiscal response by Congress as “insufficient”, 37 per cent said it’s “adequate”. At the same time, more than 75 per cent of panelists said the Federal Reserve monetary policy is currently “about right”, the strongest approval in more than 13 years.