IMF sees global growth moderating in near term

Dubai: Global growth is now projected to slow from 3.6 per cent in 2018 to 3.3 per cent in 2019, before returning to 3.6 per cent in 2020, according to the World Economic Outlook (WEO).

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) report has revised growth for 2018 down by 0.1 percentage point relative to the October 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO) figure, reflecting weakness in the second half of the year. The forecasts for 2019 and 2020 have now been marked down by 0.4 percentage points and 0.1 percentage point, respectively.

The current forecast envisages that global growth will level off in the first half of 2019 and firm up after that. The projected pick-up in the second half of 2019 is predicated on an ongoing build-up of policy stimulus in China, recent improvements in global financial market sentiment, the waning of some temporary drags on growth in the Eurozone, and a gradual stabilisation of conditions in stressed emerging market economies, including Argentina and Turkey.

The IMF sees improved growth momentum for emerging markets and developing economies. Growth across emerging market and developing economies is projected to stabilise slightly below 5 per cent, though with variations by region and country.

By contrast, activity in advanced economies is projected to continue to slow gradually as the impact of US fiscal stimulus fades and growth trends toward modest potential for the group.

Growth in advanced economies is projected to slow from 2.2 per cent in 2018 to 1.8 per cent in 2019 and 1.7 per cent in 2020. The estimated growth rates for 2018 and 2019 are 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points lower, respectively, than what was envisaged in the October 2018 WEO report — mostly reflecting downward revisions for the Eurozone.

In the United States, growth is expected to decline to 2.3 per cent in 2019 and soften further to 1.9 per cent in 2020 with the unwinding of fiscal stimulus. The downward revision of the 2019 growth figure reflects the impact of the government shutdown and somewhat lower fiscal spending than previously anticipated,

Beyond 2020, global growth is set to plateau at about 3.6 per cent over the medium term, sustained by the increase in the relative size of economies such China and India, which are projected to have robust growth in comparison to advanced and emerging market economies, which are seen growing at a slower pace.

IMF revises Mideast growth projections

Dubai: Subdued commodity prices and conflicts in some cases are expected to lower medium-term growth prospects for the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan region according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO).

The report projects lower real GDP growth for oil exporters from the region, with a downward revision from 0.6 per cent to 0.4 per cent in 2019, followed by a pick-up to 2.8 per cent in 2020.

In the GCC, Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth is projected to slow from 2.2 per cent in 2018 to 1.8 per cent in 2019 and 2.1 per cent in 2010.

The IMF has revised the UAE’s economic growth outlook downwards from the October 2018 forecasts.

According to the latest estimates, the UAE economy grew by 1.7 per cent against the October forecast of 2.9 per cent in 2018.

For 2019, the IMF’s WEO has projected 2.8 per cent real GDP growth compared to the earlier forecast of 3.6 per cent.